Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Basic math error by Telus

A small number of customers — or “0.1 per cent” — were being canceled… because their heavy usage was slowing the company’s wireless network and affecting speeds for the vast majority of users.


This 0.1% number does not jive with their claims of 'affecting other users'.

The problem is that 0.1% part of the user base is such a small number that those heavy users would have had to have been using INCREDIBLE amounts of bandwidth to actually significantly affect the total bandwidth on a given tower. But we know from first hand reports, and confirmed by Telus, that the so-called "abusers" were using somewhere between 12 and 40 GB per month. Obviously I don't have the exact average usage of this heavy users, but it must be something around 25GB. And you'll see that Telus is so far off that the exact numbers are not critical. You'd need insane numbers for their argument to hold water.

If 99.9% of the total user population is using (say) only about 1.0 GB per month (some more, some less), and 0.1% are using (say) about 25 GB per month, then these very few heavy users bring the average up from 1.0GB per month per user to 1.024 GB per month per user.

Show your work:
99.9% * 1.0GB + 0.1% * 25GB = 1.024GB average (in other words: +2.4%)

The heavy users don't have much of an affect because they are so heavily outnumbered (0.1% is a 1000-to-1 ratio).

A 2.4% delta isn't really going to have much of an affect on any reasonable network.

So it is obvious that these numbers do not support the statement that those using more than the unstated limit of 5GB are actually 'affecting other users'. It is simply a myth being propagated by Telus to try to cause infighting amongst the user community.

Their numbers are so far off from making any sense that they will have a very difficult time justifying their position when push comes to shove.

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